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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 20-45 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 1-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskRoot causeSafety | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Root causeSafetyIncident |