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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskRoot causeSafety | Root causeSafetyIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |