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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow |