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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Operations Change Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 45-120 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |