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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Root causeSafetyIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |