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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |