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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 15-30 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | Root causeSafetyIncident |