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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-2 h | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |