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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |