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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale |