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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Trade-off Analysis |  Decision Making Decision Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | With limited resources, quality, speed, cost, and risk almost always compete with each other. Trade-off Analysis makes these tensions explicit and prevents decisions from producing hidden side effects. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-120 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Trade-off Matrix, Criteria List, Decision Rationale, Accepted Downsides | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | TradeoffsDecisionCriteriaOptions | DecisionTreeOptions |