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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |