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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Business Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | The Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas shows how an offering is positioned relative to the market. Differentiation thereby becomes tangible in value factors instead of merely being claimed. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Strategy Canvas, Value Curve, ERRC Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | StrategyPositioningInnovationValue |