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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality | Root causeSafetyIncident |