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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Decision Making Delphi Method | ![]() Operations Root Cause Analysis | ![]() Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |



