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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations |