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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |