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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning |