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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ChangeDecisionStrategy |