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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 0.5-3 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 5-15 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking |