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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |