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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration for Root Cause Tree Analysis
Operations
Root Cause Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-90 min1-3 h2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
3-101-62-82-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListCause Tree, Evidence Notes, CountermeasuresBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
DecisionTreeOptions
Root causeTreeIncidentQuality
Root causeSafetyIncident
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