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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making Trade-off Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | With limited resources, quality, speed, cost, and risk almost always compete with each other. Trade-off Analysis makes these tensions explicit and prevents decisions from producing hidden side effects. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 45-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Trade-off Matrix, Criteria List, Decision Rationale, Accepted Downsides |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | DecisionTreeOptions | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | TradeoffsDecisionCriteriaOptions |