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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-180 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-20 | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |