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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Operations Change Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 2-4 h | 45-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison |