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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetyIncident |