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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations After-Action Review |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 20-45 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-12 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | LearningOperationsImprovement | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |