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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |