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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |