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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Change Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-120 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |