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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Iceberg Model method illustration showing its working structure
Systems Thinking
Iceberg Model
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min20-45 min15-30 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-101-102-62-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsBehavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key EventsRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresIceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns
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