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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Change Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 45-120 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Root causeSafetyIncident | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |