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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 2-6 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Root causeSafetyIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |