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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 10-20 min daily | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Root causeSafetyIncident | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |