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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-60 min | 20-35 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |