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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-60 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |