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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 2-8 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingDecisionRationale | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |