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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 30-60 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1 | 2-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |