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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |