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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 2-4 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Root causeSafetyIncident | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |