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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Root causeSafetyIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |