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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min10-20 min daily45-60 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-1012-81-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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