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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations After-Action Review |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LearningOperationsImprovement | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy |