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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile Planning Poker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-5 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 4-12 Experten | 3-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam |