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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making OODA Loop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen | 15-60 min je Zyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy |