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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-5 Tage | Half day | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |