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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-4 h | 60-120 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionSensemaking | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |