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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |