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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 20–45 min | 2-6 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |