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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 2-6 h | 60-120 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |